Can the Venezuelan Opposition Win the 2024 Presidential Election?
Shifts in oil markets, US strategy and opposition capacity are undermining Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's ability to fix the next election.
Image credit: McGill Journal of Political Studies
I wrote a long-range deep dive on the #opposition's prospects in #venezuela's #election2024, analysing Venezuelan politics and the likely actions of #usa, #russia, #china and #latinamerica.
The Executive Summary is below. Click here to download the full report.
Executive Summary
Assessments that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro will easily fix the 2024 Presidential elections and remain in power in the oil-rich but crisis-stricken nation are mistaken.
This perspective fails to consider the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine War on international energy markets and geopolitics, shifts in US strategy, and shifts in the strategy of the Venezuelan opposition, since 2022. These changes give the opposition at least an even chance of winning the election.
An opposition victory will improve the business climate for interested Western oil majors and investors, as US sanctions on Venezuela’s oil will be dropped and the accession of a more stable and legitimate government will reduce political and geopolitical risks.
Due to the War, Venezuelan oil redirected to Asia after 2019 to avoid US sanctions now faces competition from discounted Russian oil, while market opportunities to the West have opened if Venezuela’s oil industry can be repaired and expanded. Maduro seeks a deal with the US to access Western markets and investment in return for an election that is more credible than previous contests – but he still aims to win.
The US will use sanctions and sanctions waivers to pressure Maduro for more free and fair conditions for the 2024 election, in areas such as voter registration, election monitoring, National Electoral Council (CNE) membership, and others. These concessions will erode his ability to fix the election.
Increased US democracy assistance - $37 million in 2023 - to Venezuelan opposition organisations aims to improve their strategy, communications, and capacity to monitor election fraud, producing a more effective opposition than in previous elections.
The opposition aims to elect one candidate to run against Maduro in 2024, to avoid the mistakes of 2018 and 2021, when opposition splits and boycotts allowed the regime to win “managed” elections easily.
85% of the Venezuelan public blame the regime for Venezuela’s economic crisis. A unified opposition campaigning on a moderate economic platform will pose an electoral threat to Maduro.
The regime has underperformed in less “managed” elections or when facing a unified opposition and high turnout. Under more free and fair conditions, facing an unsupportive public and a more effective opposition, Maduro will struggle.
Maduro will struggle to remain in power after an election loss or a result disputed with evidence of fraud. There is no pro-Venezuela bloc in Latin America to support him. Russia and China will not intervene strongly to save the regime.
The Venezuelan opposition can win in 2024 and Maduro can be forced to step down.
Click here to download the full report.