The Biden Administration seeks to craft a Venezuela policy that achieves geopolitical interests, energy security, and democracy promotion in the shadow of the Russia-Ukraine War
The economic gains from the return of a US corridor to Venezuelan oil sounds convincing to this naive reader that Maduro may “compromise” and roll the dice with Guaidó in 2024. I have to assume all sides understand a well funded information warfare campaign favoring Guaidó would be part of the deal, and don’t know how much weight to give to this aspect of it.
If Maduro believes he could overcome it and goes along with this, do you not see US oil interests accepting that situation? Or should I read you as saying even if he won, the democracy promotion would continue until he was removed and only then would the oil flow?
Louis, I think that the US will aim at removing Maduro in 2024. The US has often compromised with dictators in the past, and it will do again in the future, but the leftwing character of Maduro's regime and his willingness to allow outside powers into the US' backyard (the American perception) will militate against it in these circumstances. In additon, it may be difficult to stump up the large amount of foreign investment needed to really tap those huge reserves if oil companies do not fundamentally trust the Maduro regime.
I think Maduro will roll the dice, looking to make as few concessions as possible in negotiations over the 2024 elections. However, in the run-up to 2024 I would expect to see a concerted effort by organisations such as USAID and NED to unify the Venezuelan opposition movement to produce one political ticket, together with training for opposition organisations in political communication, get-out-the-vote techniques, election monitoring, etc, to unseat him. These tactics have been effective for the US in previous situations and this, coupled with Maduro's poor economic record, mean that he could lose. If he wins, this would be a serious upset for the US government, but I assume they will then default to some other method of seeking to remove him.
The economic gains from the return of a US corridor to Venezuelan oil sounds convincing to this naive reader that Maduro may “compromise” and roll the dice with Guaidó in 2024. I have to assume all sides understand a well funded information warfare campaign favoring Guaidó would be part of the deal, and don’t know how much weight to give to this aspect of it.
If Maduro believes he could overcome it and goes along with this, do you not see US oil interests accepting that situation? Or should I read you as saying even if he won, the democracy promotion would continue until he was removed and only then would the oil flow?
Louis, I think that the US will aim at removing Maduro in 2024. The US has often compromised with dictators in the past, and it will do again in the future, but the leftwing character of Maduro's regime and his willingness to allow outside powers into the US' backyard (the American perception) will militate against it in these circumstances. In additon, it may be difficult to stump up the large amount of foreign investment needed to really tap those huge reserves if oil companies do not fundamentally trust the Maduro regime.
I think Maduro will roll the dice, looking to make as few concessions as possible in negotiations over the 2024 elections. However, in the run-up to 2024 I would expect to see a concerted effort by organisations such as USAID and NED to unify the Venezuelan opposition movement to produce one political ticket, together with training for opposition organisations in political communication, get-out-the-vote techniques, election monitoring, etc, to unseat him. These tactics have been effective for the US in previous situations and this, coupled with Maduro's poor economic record, mean that he could lose. If he wins, this would be a serious upset for the US government, but I assume they will then default to some other method of seeking to remove him.
Thank you for these insights into such a sad state of affairs, for everyone.